Weekly Signals
Defensive Tide Rising
Three of four signals favor safety. The S&P 500 has broken its 200-day moving average — and the lone Risk-On reading is gold's crash, not improving fundamentals.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
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The Fed Just Spoke. Now Hear What They Won't Tell You.
Jay Hatfield on why real inflation is already at 1.9%, the oil shock timeline, and where the S&P 500 is headed — TODAY at 1 PM ET
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The Fed Is Making Policy on Phantom Inflation — Here’s the Proof
Post-Fed webinar with Infrastructure Capital on broken inflation data, private credit panic, and the mid-April setup
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Tuesday in Vegas — Join Me and GraniteShares at Kassi Beach House
Exchange 2026 is here. If you’re an advisor in Las Vegas, there’s one event this week you don’t want to miss.
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I Will Not Relent
A Foreword to the Third Edition of Intermarket Analysis and Investing
High Yield Spotlight
This 9% Yielder Gives You Databricks, Anthropic, And ByteDance At A 12% Discount
But 38% In Private Holdings Means You're Trusting BlackRock's Marks
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One Year of Signals: The Track Record
--- I started publishing The Lead-Lag Report because I believed intermarket analysis was the most underused edge in investing. Most people watch the S&P 500 and react. The signal framework watches everything else—and positions ahead of time. One year in, here's the data. THE SIGNAL
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What You're Missing Every Week
THE FREE VERSION Every week, The Lead-Lag Report delivers macro analysis and intermarket context to your inbox. If you're a free subscriber, you see roughly half of each report—the big picture view, the framework, and the directional thesis. That alone puts you ahead of most investors
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I'll Be at Exchange 2026 in Las Vegas — Let's Connect
March 15-18 at the Virgin Hotels. If you're an advisor attending, there's something extra you should know about.
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What Paid Subscribers Get (And Why It Matters)
Every week, I publish The Lead-Lag Report. Thousands of you read the free version. And that's great — I'm glad the macro frameworks and market context are useful. Subscribe But here's what you're not seeing. The free portion of each report gives
Global View
The Great Rotation Meets $100 Oil
Small Caps Surge, Hormuz Stays Shut, and Seven Central Banks Walk Into a Bar
Leaders-Laggards
War Premium and the Defensive Stampede
Negative Payrolls, $100 Oil, and a Market That Wants Nothing to Do With Risk