The Lead-Lag Report

The Top of the Waterfall

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Weekly Signals summary — 2 Risk-On, 2 Risk-Off, composite tilts modestly risk-on

A Market Divided Against Itself

Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.

Semis Sank. Banks Blew Out. Iran Got Loud.

When credit refuses to confirm a sell-off and geopolitics refuses to stay in the background, which signal is the market actually telling you to trust?

The Fed Isn't Data-Dependent. The Fed Is Treasury-Dependent.

Powell isn't waiting on inflation. He's waiting on an issuance machine that cannot survive a front-end cut. The Fed's reaction function has been captured by Treasury issuance mechanics — and the falsification condition is watchable.

The CLO Income Play That Doesn't Blow Up

How the Panagram BBB-B CLO ETF delivers a 7.5% yield with a floating-rate profile that thrives in a higher-for-longer world.

A Record Quarter, a 40-Year Yen Low, and a Refuted Peace Trade: Q3 Has Begun

The dot plot beat the peace trade at T+7, exactly as titled. A record quarter and a 40-year yen low now set Q3 terms.

The Preferred Stock Trade Most Allocators Are Still Sleepwalking Past

Live today at 2:00 PM ET with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital — 40 minutes, live Q&A, 1 CFP CE credit approved

Every Equity Crisis Was a Currency Crisis First

Fifty years of market history says the tape doesn't break until the money breaks. The signals are already blinking.

Defensive Sweep: XLV +4.6σ Best Sector Signal in Years, Tech Crushed -2σ, Framework Flips Risk-Off, Credit Confirms

XLV +7.8% Best Week Since 2022; XLK -5.3%; XLU +3.9%; Russell Holds; WTI -9.6%; JNK/GOVT -1.5σ CONFIRMING

A Market at the Edge