Lead-Lag Live
The retail brokerage landscape is entering a new phase. Artificial intelligence is no longer just a research aid or a chatbot layered onto an existing platform. It is increasingly becoming the interface through which investors research ideas, construct portfolios, and execute complex decisions that once required teams of analysts or
Leaders-Laggards
Key Highlights * A multi-year global rearmament cycle is underway, driven by active wars, renewed great-power rivalry, and depleted military inventories.¹ * Defense spending growth is increasingly structural rather than cyclical, with record budgets and long-dated procurement commitments.¹² * Market pricing remains uneven, leaving several strategically critical aerospace and defense
Lead-Lag Live
Lead-Lag Live Recap: Hype vs. Reality in AI Investing
Weekly Signals
Key Highlights * The JOJO.INDEX has shifted into “junk-off,” signaling increased probability of near-term volatility. * Utility stock leadership triggered the rotation, a historically reliable early warning signal. * Credit spreads remain near historic lows, leaving little margin for error. * Investor sentiment shows extreme optimism despite signs of economic cooling.
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Major markets closed the year on an uneasy note as a thinly traded, holiday-shortened week delivered a reality check to 2025’s late-cycle rally. The S&P 500 slipped roughly 1% for the week, its first weekly decline in five weeks, while the Nasdaq fell closer to
Global View
The closing stretch of 2025 has been defined by record equity prices, broadening market participation, and an easing inflation backdrop that few anticipated a year ago. Central banks across developed markets have either paused or begun reversing tightening cycles, while investors have embraced a risk-on posture that has pushed
Newsletter
For decades, bonds occupied a familiar role in portfolios. A broad, plain-vanilla bond ETF offered diversification, income, and ballast against equity volatility. Investors could buy a core bond fund, reinvest interest, and largely ignore day-to-day market noise. That framework worked well when inflation was subdued and interest
Macro Observations
It’s the Last Gasp Before a Deflationary Bust
Lead-Lag Live
Lead-Lag Live Recap
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Key Highlights * Precious metals ended 2025 at record highs, with silver and platinum dramatically outperforming gold as industrial demand collided with falling real yields and renewed safe-haven flows. * Equities and hard assets rallied simultaneously, an unusual combination that reflects optimism around monetary easing alongside persistent macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
Macro Observations
Key Highlights * Silver’s recent surge is not corroborated by inflation expectations, which have remained range-bound. That disconnect suggests the move is driven by stress, not rising consumer prices. * Historically, silver outperforms gold and inflation hedges when confidence in growth and liquidity deteriorates, not when economies are overheating. * Persistent
High Yield Spotlight
Key Highlights * Fallen angels occupy the highest tier of the high-yield market, with roughly three-quarters of the portfolio concentrated in BB-rated bonds, materially reducing exposure to the most speculative segments of junk credit. * Higher quality has not meant lower returns. Over full market cycles, fallen-angel strategies