Global View
A year-end rally is gaining momentum as investors respond to cooler bond yields and a growing belief that the Federal Reserve is prepared to ease policy soon. Equity benchmarks have climbed toward record highs, helped by strong technology earnings and a broad pullback in Treasury yields. Nvidia’s latest
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Newsletter
Two days before Thanksgiving in 2008, I lost my father suddenly. He was here one day and gone the next, right on the eve of a holiday about gratitude and family. It’s hard to describe what that kind of loss feels like, especially at a time when everyone else
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Weekly Signals
The market has spent most of 2025 celebrating its loudest winners — Big Tech, high-beta favorites, and the speculative trades that dominated the narrative. Yet beneath that noise, a quieter story is unfolding. Low-volatility stocks, ignored for much of the year, have begun to outperform. The shift is subtle,
Lead-Lag Live
Key Takeaways * Tech isn’t in a bubble — but it is fully valued. Expect pullbacks to be more about digestion than destruction, with dip buyers still active. * Rotation is already underway. Small-caps and value-heavy equities tend to outperform coming out of Fed tightening cycles. * Income has the edge
Lead-Lag Live
Key Takeaways * AI monetization in China is shifting toward cloud computing, where Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are seeing the strongest revenue traction. * China’s “anti-involution” policy is easing excessive competition and helping stabilize profitability in areas like solar and clean tech. * Non-U.S. investors are reallocating to China
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High Yield Spotlight
Key Takeaways * KBWY offers one of the highest yields in the ETF world (~9–10%), but that payout comes with real volatility and long-term capital erosion. * The fund is concentrated in small and micro-cap REITs — the riskiest corners of the real estate market — which fall harder in downturns
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Key Takeaways * Rate-cut bets surged after delayed labor data showed softening conditions, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar lower even as weekly equity performance remained negative. * Market leadership showed visible strain, with tech—especially Nvidia—failing to rally despite strong earnings, highlighting valuation fatigue. * Policy visibility remains limited, with
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Global View
Key Takeaways * A 43-day U.S. government shutdown erased major economic releases, forcing markets to trade without CPI or jobs data.¹ * Fed officials are split on a possible December rate cut, keeping volatility elevated and narrowing market leadership.² * Europe shows rare stability: PMIs remain above 50 and inflation sits