Leaders-Laggards
Retail stocks have spent most of 2025 on their back foot. The equal-weighted SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down for the year, badly trailing the S&P 500’s gain.¹ A rotation away from consumer cyclicals has hardened into a broader risk-off stance, and
Macro Observations
AI enthusiasm has pushed Nvidia to heights few would have imagined, humbling anyone who doubted its rise—including me. For nearly two years I argued the stock had outrun reality, yet Nvidia kept proving skeptics wrong. Its latest earnings only intensified the mania, raising an uncomfortable question: is this a
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Sponsored By GraniteShares
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Sponsored by OptionsANIMAL
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Sponsored By GraniteShares
Weekly Signals
After the November 17 sell-off, the Weekly Signals framework is sending an early warning that the market’s risk environment may be shifting. The clearest sign comes from the Utilities vs. S&P 500 relative strength ratio. Although still officially in “Risk-On,” utilities’ defensive behavior during the
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Macro Observations
Bitcoin has spent years being dismissed as a volatile proxy for tech stocks, but something quieter and far more consequential has been unfolding beneath the surface: its correlation to traditional risk assets has slipped to multi-year lows¹. The shift went largely unnoticed, even though it may be the clearest
Lead-Lag Live
Markets continue to shift in ways that force investors to balance income, risk, and long-term equity exposure more carefully than ever. AI-driven valuation concerns, shifting Fed expectations, and pockets of volatility have created an environment where responsive strategies stand out. In a new episode of Lead-Lag Live,
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Market sentiment can flip overnight—from euphoria to fear. History shows how quickly investors rush from high-yield bonds and equities into U.S. Treasuries when volatility spikes, as seen in 2018, 2020, and during major corrections in risk-on assets. The challenge is not predicting these moments but preparing