Macro Observations
Capitalism depends on consumer spending, not ideology. About 70 percent of U.S. GDP has long come from household consumption¹. The system runs on a simple feedback loop: businesses pay workers, who then buy the goods and services those same businesses sell². As automation accelerates, that loop is breaking. Artificial
Lead-Lag Live
When markets trade on fantasy rather than fundamentals, it’s usually just a matter of time before gravity reasserts itself. That’s one of the big takeaways from our latest conversation with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, and creator of the Running Oak Efficient Growth ETF (RUNN)
Lead-Lag Live
Guest: Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors Host: Melanie Schaffer Key Themes: Fed Policy • Rate Cuts • AI Boom • Small Caps • Income Strategies The Fed’s Pivot — Right Decision, Wrong Reason In his latest Lead-Lag Live appearance, Jay Hatfield argues that the Federal Reserve’s dovish shift is both
Closing Thoughts for the Week
October ended with a sugar rush for investors as equities hit record highs on strong Big Tech earnings and the Federal Reserve’s second consecutive rate cut. The S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the month—its sixth straight advance—while the Nasdaq extended its winning streak to
Macro Observations
When Warren Buffett—famed for spotting undervalued stocks—is reluctant to buy, investors take notice. His firm, Berkshire Hathaway, is holding nearly $350 billion in cash and short-term Treasuries—the largest hoard ever amassed by a public company, even exceeding the combined liquid reserves of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon,
Macro Observations
Not long ago, the fear was that robots would steal factory jobs. Now artificial intelligence is coming for the cubicle. From accountants to customer service reps, white-collar workers are suddenly vulnerable. In 2023, IBM paused hiring for certain back-office jobs, projecting that roughly 7,800 positions could be
High Yield Spotlight
After a long bull run, many investors sense we’re in the late innings of the market cycle. Stocks notched record highs in 2025, yet equity income remains scarce. The S&P 500’s dividend yield sits below 2%, hardly satisfying retirees or income seekers.² Meanwhile, traditional bonds, though
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Global View
This Week at a Glance • U.S.: The Federal Reserve delivered a second straight rate cut, trimming the policy rate to 3.75–4.00%, while hinting at a pause amid a federal data blackout. • International: A one-year U.S.-China trade truce was announced, easing tariff tensions even
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Weekly Signals
Investors are entering the final stretch of the year wondering if equities have one more rally left in them. After months of turbulence, talk of an “end-of-year melt-up” is growing louder. Seasonality favors a rally, and one curious tell—the severe weakness in utility stocks—has caught
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