Global View
Economic data were muted by the partial government shutdown, but enough leaked to shape markets. Private payrolls (ADP) unexpectedly fell by 31,000 in September, far below forecasts, and consumer confidence slid to a five-month low¹. The labor market remains historically tight (U-3 unemployment ~4.3%) but hiring
Leaders-Laggards
The Business Development Company (BDC) sector has had a rough ride in 2025. The VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD), a broad proxy for the group, is down 16.36% year-to-date as of early October, while the S&P 500 is up over 13%.¹ Even reliable names like
Weekly Signals
My 2014 study showed that utilities do better than other stocks in the weeks leading up to vol spikes, providing an early warning smart money is getting ready for a move to defense.[1] Friday’s sell-off (Oct. 10, 2025) confirmed in dramatic fashion. The chart above — a plot
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Markets finally received the wake-up call they had been ignoring. After a couple of weeks of relatively low volatility, a 25.68% spike in the VIX to 20.65 on Friday gave it to us –- its biggest one-day move in more than six months.¹ Stocks paid the price:
High Yield Spotlight
The Kurv Silver Enhanced Income ETF (KSLV) is a recently launched exchange-traded fund designed to provide investors with exposure to silver while generating monthly income. KSLV aims to outperform the price return of physical silver by combining silver-focused investments with income-producing strategies—a powerful proposition for income-
Global View
The past week underscored an extraordinary divergence between darkening economic data and buoyant financial markets. A U.S. shutdown, which started on Oct. 1, put the data in a no-man’s land – not even the make-or-break September non-farm payrolls report was available¹. But a private-sector
Newsletter
Imagine skipping rush-hour gridlock by boarding a quiet electric aircraft that lifts off from a downtown rooftop. Within minutes, you’re across the city. That vision is no longer science fiction—it’s Joby Aviation’s reality. It’s also a story about how deregulation can open new frontiers,
Newsletter
When the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, it often feels like a long-awaited relief. After a tightening cycle, easier money sounds like good news for nearly every corner of the bond market. Yet history shows that a Fed cutting cycle can be a double-edged sword. Historically speaking,
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Leaders-Laggards
Over the past 12 months, the Materials sector has trailed the broader U.S. equity market. In 2024, it was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector, while the S&P 500 itself rose more than 20 percent.[1] High interest rates, weak Chinese industrial demand, and uncertainty
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Sponsored By Cambria
Newsletter
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has stayed relatively tranquil in the mid-teens over the past month, dipping below 14-15 in mid-September and just settling around 16 as October started.¹ This sort of quiet is staggeringly complacent. Yet less volatility leads investors to take on more leverage and