Macro Observations
Mid-week signals check: Gold backs off the Risk-Off flip
The Lumber/Gold signal that flipped on Monday is already getting tested. Here is what changed.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
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TODAY: Free CE Credit: Beyond Bonds, the 4% Rule, and Covered Call ETFs (Apr 30)
1.0 CFP CE credit. Free. Live panel with Tuttle Capital on April 30
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TOMORROW: Free CE Credit: Beyond Bonds, the 4% Rule, and Covered Call ETFs (Apr 30)
1.0 CFP CE credit. Free. Live panel with Tuttle Capital on April 30
Newsletter
Free CE Credit: Beyond Bonds, the 4% Rule, and Covered Call ETFs (Apr 30)
1.0 CFP CE credit. Free. Live panel with Tuttle Capital on April 30
Weekly Signals
Full Risk-On
All four intermarket signals agree: offense is the play. Trend, rotation, and commodities all aligned.
Macro Observations
The Credit-Equity Divergence: What 285 Basis Points Is Telling You That 7,000 Isn't
The S&P 500 just crossed a round number. Corporate credit already told you how this ends. Stop watching the wrong market.
Macro Observations
Here's what this week's signal table looks like
I want to show you something. Every week, paid subscribers receive a signal dashboard that looks roughly like this: Signal | Trend (13-Week) | Current Reading Lumber / Gold | Up | Strong Copper / Gold | Up | Strong High Yield / Treasuries | Up | Strong Utilities / S&P 500 | Up | Strong Composite | Up | Strong You can
Weekly Signals
A Market Divided
Key Takeaways * The Beta Rotation signal (XLU/SPY 4-week RoC of +1.65%) remains Risk-Off for the sixth consecutive week. Despite the S&P 500’s 3.4% weekly rally, utilities maintained their relative edge. XLU at $46.34 continues to attract defensive flows, reflecting persistent uncertainty
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TODAY: Private Credit Under Fire: Risks, Realities & the BDC Buying Opportunity
A CE Credit Webinar with White Wolf Capital
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AllianceBernstein's Global High-Yield CEF Yields 7.5%. The 8% Discount Is the Story.
When tariffs stress EM credit and domestic HY in the same move, a diversified global income fund at a decade-wide discount deserves a look.
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TOMORROW: Private Credit Under Fire: Risks, Realities & the BDC Buying Opportunity
A CE Credit Webinar with White Wolf Capital
Newsletter
REMINDER: Private Credit: What They're Not Telling You (Free Webinar — TODAY 11AM ET)
TODAY at 11:00 AM ET, I’m joining three other independent voices for a focused, 25-minute conversation on what’s really happening inside private credit — and what the marketing decks are leaving out. Private credit has been sold as the everything asset: higher yield, lower volatility, steady marks,