Closing Thoughts for the Week
KEY HIGHLIGHTS • The S&P 500 surged 4.5% to close at 7,126, its first record high since January, while the Nasdaq gained 6.8% and posted its longest winning streak since 1992 at 11 consecutive sessions. • Major bank earnings exceeded expectations across the board, with JPMorgan reporting
Leaders-Laggards
Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors. The below charts are all price ratios which show
Macro Observations
Let me give you a specific number. In September 2025, three of the four primary intermarket signals in the paid dashboard shifted to risk-off. The Lumber/Gold ratio had already broken down weeks earlier — a signal I’ve tracked as a leading indicator of growth expectations for years. Paid
Newsletter
Dear Investor, Before the morning of August 9, 1995, the Internet was just something academic researchers and tech nerds talked about. Many people on Wall Street thought it was a fad. Then… Netscape went public. Netscape’s IPO didn’t just launch an internet company; it forced every institutional desk
Newsletter
Dear Investor, Before the morning of August 9, 1995, the Internet was just something academic researchers and tech nerds talked about. Many people on Wall Street thought it was a fad. Then… Netscape went public. Netscape’s IPO didn’t just launch an internet company; it forced every institutional desk
High Yield Spotlight
HIGH YIELD SPOTLIGHT Why PDO is one of the most interesting income vehicles in closed-end funds right now — and why the premium, the leverage, and the 2033 termination date all matter more than most investors realize. Every week, we'll profile a high yield investment fund that typically
Macro Observations
More than 10,000 people pay for this newsletter every month. A meaningful portion of them are financial advisors, portfolio managers, and institutional allocators. These are not people who pay for content casually. They’ve decided the intermarket signal framework here is worth incorporating into their process. Here’s what
Newsletter
<p><em>In September, the Lumber/Gold ratio broke down.</em></p> <p>Not the S&P. Not the VIX. Not any headline you would have seen on CNBC. The Lumber/Gold ratio — one of the most reliable leading
Global View
A Two-Week Pause, a $19 Oil Crash, and Islamabad’s Historic Failure
Leaders-Laggards
Oil Crashes 11%, the S&P Posts Its Best Day in a Year, and the Peace Trade Finally Has a Price
Weekly Signals
Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.
Newsletter
I don’t write urgency posts for the sake of writing urgency posts. But this is one of the few times I genuinely mean it — what’s happening tomorrow at NASDAQ MarketSite is something most advisors won’t see again for a long time. GraniteShares is hosting an advisor-only