Global View
This Week at a Glance Markets cooled after an exuberant October. In the U.S., private data hinted at a softer labor market, with unemployment near 4.4% and planned layoffs at a 22-year high¹². The S&P 500 fell roughly 2.4% from recent highs but remains
Weekly Signals
Seasonality often gets dismissed as folklore. Yet history keeps proving that the final stretch of the year—November and December—has been a sweet spot for equity investors. Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has rallied in November roughly 73 percent of the time, averaging gains
Leaders-Laggards
In early November 2025, markets stumbled after an extraordinary tech rally. Global indexes slipped as investors questioned whether the artificial-intelligence (AI) boom had gone too far. Even the entire “Magnificent Seven” — Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Alphabet, and Meta — fell in a single session, with the Nasdaq down about
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Bond investors have discovered that “steady income” can be anything but steady. After 2022’s record losses in fixed income, volatility and uncertainty remain defining traits of the bond market. Even as yields retreat from multi-year highs and Treasury volatility (tracked by the MOVE Index) hits its lowest level
Leaders-Laggards
The U.S. Utilities sector has outperformed the broader market for most of 2025. As of early November, the Utilities Select Sector ETF (XLU) is up roughly 20% in total return versus 17% for the S&P 500 (SPY)—an apparent lead that masks a volatile year. Despite their
Weekly Signals
Why the Index Can Be Above the 50-Day MA and Still Fragile
Macro Observations
Capitalism depends on consumer spending, not ideology. About 70 percent of U.S. GDP has long come from household consumption¹. The system runs on a simple feedback loop: businesses pay workers, who then buy the goods and services those same businesses sell². As automation accelerates, that loop is breaking. Artificial
Lead-Lag Live
When markets trade on fantasy rather than fundamentals, it’s usually just a matter of time before gravity reasserts itself. That’s one of the big takeaways from our latest conversation with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, and creator of the Running Oak Efficient Growth ETF (RUNN)
Lead-Lag Live
Guest: Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors Host: Melanie Schaffer Key Themes: Fed Policy • Rate Cuts • AI Boom • Small Caps • Income Strategies The Fed’s Pivot — Right Decision, Wrong Reason In his latest Lead-Lag Live appearance, Jay Hatfield argues that the Federal Reserve’s dovish shift is both
Closing Thoughts for the Week
October ended with a sugar rush for investors as equities hit record highs on strong Big Tech earnings and the Federal Reserve’s second consecutive rate cut. The S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the month—its sixth straight advance—while the Nasdaq extended its winning streak to