Leaders-Laggards
The Consumer Staples sector—traditionally a safe haven—has lagged sharply in 2025. Year-to-date, staples have gained barely 3 percent versus more than 15 percent for the S&P 500, making them among the weakest major sector of the stock market. Investors have chased high-growth tech
Weekly Signals
Lumber’s price swings have long served as an early read on the economy’s health. Because it’s central to homebuilding, lumber demand often rises and falls before broader economic shifts appear in GDP or employment data. As economist Edward Leamer once wrote, housing is “the most important sector
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Flight to Safety Amid Credit Jitters
High Yield Spotlight
Investors seeking income face a challenge: the S&P 500 yields below 2%, offering limited cash flow versus historical norms¹. Early optimism around a potential Federal Reserve pivot drove yields lower and lifted defensive sectors. As those expectations moderated, Treasury yields rebounded, cooling speculative excesses. Utilities—historically interest-rate
Newsletter
In credit markets these days, raising new funds feels like running a marathon, not a sprint. According to PitchBook, private credit funds now take nearly two years to close—roughly double the pace from just a few years ago¹. Major managers are feeling the strain and are turning to new
Newsletter
Regulators need to cut red tape for power plants to get built faster. Plain and simple. That’s one of the reasons why The Free Markets ETF (FMKT) positioned into Southern Company (SO). FMKT’s investment objective is to seek long-term capital appreciation by investing in companies that are
Newsletter
Investors are watching commercial real estate through a split lens. On one side, public CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities) are flashing stress signals. On the other, private office loans seem to be holding their ground. Trepp’s latest report shows CMBS office delinquencies at 5.58% in September, pushing the
Global View
Economic data were muted by the partial government shutdown, but enough leaked to shape markets. Private payrolls (ADP) unexpectedly fell by 31,000 in September, far below forecasts, and consumer confidence slid to a five-month low¹. The labor market remains historically tight (U-3 unemployment ~4.3%) but hiring
Leaders-Laggards
The Business Development Company (BDC) sector has had a rough ride in 2025. The VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD), a broad proxy for the group, is down 16.36% year-to-date as of early October, while the S&P 500 is up over 13%.¹ Even reliable names like
Weekly Signals
My 2014 study showed that utilities do better than other stocks in the weeks leading up to vol spikes, providing an early warning smart money is getting ready for a move to defense.[1] Friday’s sell-off (Oct. 10, 2025) confirmed in dramatic fashion. The chart above — a plot
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Markets finally received the wake-up call they had been ignoring. After a couple of weeks of relatively low volatility, a 25.68% spike in the VIX to 20.65 on Friday gave it to us –- its biggest one-day move in more than six months.¹ Stocks paid the price:
Newsletter
Imagine solving a personal health issue without ever stepping into a doctor’s office. Not long ago, that would have sounded unrealistic—maybe even illegal. Today it’s normal, and one big reason is something that doesn’t often make headlines: deregulation. In the case of Hims & Hers Health,