Global View
The Great Rotation Meets $100 Oil
Small Caps Surge, Hormuz Stays Shut, and Seven Central Banks Walk Into a Bar
Global View
Global View
The Fed Is Trapped
Oil, Iran, and a Jobs Number That Changes Everything
Global View
Policy Volatility Meets Narrow Leadership: Markets Reprice Risk Without Credit Stress
A cooling but still-expanding growth backdrop is colliding with trade-policy shocks and AI-driven equity dispersion.
Global View
No Collapse, No Cut Panic
Labor steadiness complicates the easing narrative even as inflation cools.
Global View
Macro Crosscurrents: Resilience, Repricing, and a Rising Yen
Firm U.S. labor data met softer inflation, duration caught a bid, and Japan’s tightening impulse reshaped global FX dynamics.
Global View
Steady Hands, Shifting Sands
Key Highlights * Central banks are pausing in unison, but policy pivots remain conditional and uneven. * Labor markets are cooling just enough to sustain rate-cut expectations without confirming recession. * Equity leadership is rotating toward value, cyclicals, and smaller caps beneath stable index levels. * A weaker dollar, record gold prices, and
Global View
Rotation Underway Amid Resilience
Shifting Leadership in a Steady U.S. Backdrop
Global View
The Rally Grows Up
Key Highlights * U.S. inflation continues to cool without a sharp deterioration in labor markets, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold near term.¹ * Equity leadership is widening meaningfully, with small- and mid-caps outperforming mega-cap technology and signaling healthier market breadth.² * Globally, disinflation is allowing
Global View
Global Euphoria: Records, Rotation, and the Limits of Optimism
The closing stretch of 2025 has been defined by record equity prices, broadening market participation, and an easing inflation backdrop that few anticipated a year ago. Central banks across developed markets have either paused or begun reversing tightening cycles, while investors have embraced a risk-on posture that has pushed
Global View
Highs and Lows in a “Goldilocks” Finale
Key Highlights * Markets are embracing a soft-landing narrative as central banks pivot toward easing, even as labor markets loosen and growth signals become more uneven beneath the surface. * The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts have supported risk assets, with cooling inflation and rising unemployment giving policymakers room to ease
Global View
Year-End Divergence and a Broadening Rally
Key Highlights * Central bank divergence intensified into year-end. The Federal Reserve signaled a pause after its latest cut, while the Bank of Japan tightened further and European policymakers leaned toward stability rather than additional easing. * Market leadership broadened meaningfully. Small-cap and cyclical stocks outperformed as investors rotated away
Global View
When Stability Isn’t Stable: The Global Market Balance at Year-End
Markets are ending 2025 in an uneasy balance, pulled between pockets of resilience and accumulating signs of fatigue. With the federal shutdown delaying official labor data, investors relied on private indicators to make sense of the economy. That produced one of the week’s strangest divergences. Jobless claims fell to