Macro Observations
Macro Observations
Macro Observations
Why I'm pushing the annual plan tonight
Quick note - and the only one I'll send like this. The Lead-Lag Report has two paid options: Monthly: $39/month - which is $468/year if you stay on it. Annual: $320/year - a flat $148 less than the monthly plan annualized. If you've been reading
Macro Observations
Last call -- and the math on going annual
This is the last email in this sequence, so I’ll be straightforward. You’ve been reading the free version of this newsletter, which means you understand the intermarket framework, you follow the macro narrative, and you’ve seen enough to know the analysis is serious. If it weren’t,
Macro Observations
Mid-week signals check: Gold backs off the Risk-Off flip
The Lumber/Gold signal that flipped on Monday is already getting tested. Here is what changed.
Macro Observations
The Credit-Equity Divergence: What 285 Basis Points Is Telling You That 7,000 Isn't
The S&P 500 just crossed a round number. Corporate credit already told you how this ends. Stop watching the wrong market.
Macro Observations
Here's what this week's signal table looks like
I want to show you something. Every week, paid subscribers receive a signal dashboard that looks roughly like this: Signal | Trend (13-Week) | Current Reading Lumber / Gold | Up | Strong Copper / Gold | Up | Strong High Yield / Treasuries | Up | Strong Utilities / S&P 500 | Up | Strong Composite | Up | Strong You can
Macro Observations
The cost of missing one signal
Let me give you a specific number. In September 2025, three of the four primary intermarket signals in the paid dashboard shifted to risk-off. The Lumber/Gold ratio had already broken down weeks earlier — a signal I’ve tracked as a leading indicator of growth expectations for years. Paid
Macro Observations
What 10,000 paying subscribers already know
More than 10,000 people pay for this newsletter every month. A meaningful portion of them are financial advisors, portfolio managers, and institutional allocators. These are not people who pay for content casually. They’ve decided the intermarket signal framework here is worth incorporating into their process. Here’s what
Macro Observations
Stagflation With $39 Trillion in Debt Isn’t the 1970s. It’s a Depression.
There Is No Volcker Option When the Government Owes More Than the Economy Produces
Macro Observations
The Strait, the Yen, and the Unwind Nobody Sees Coming
Oil Priced in Yen Is the Real Tail Risk — and Japan’s Political Class Is Asleep at the Wheel
Macro Observations
Oil Is Inflationary. Until It Becomes Deflationary.
The speed of the move in crude determines whether it feeds inflation expectations or destroys demand. History is unambiguous about which one precedes recession.
Macro Observations
The Resilience of the U.S. Consumer Is Showing Cracks in the Credit Data
Retail sales remain stable, but rising delinquencies and elevated borrowing costs suggest repayment capacity is weakening at the margin.