Macro Observations
The markets reacted to Donald Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook earlier this week in the same way that it’s reacted to a lot of things lately. With a lot of indifference. The markets barely moved despite the fairly significant implications of what could happen if this
Macro Observations
The markets have fixated on September's potential Fed rate cut with probabilities shifting dramatically. Currently, investors see a 76% chance of a rate reduction, down from more than 95% just a week ago. These expectations will drive everything from equity valuations to borrowing costs. Powell's Jackson
Macro Observations
This past week’s highly anticipated inflation reports yielded a mixed bag of results, although I’m guessing most investors only paid attention to one number. The July CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 2.7%. The core CPI rose 0.3% to 3.
Macro Observations
President Trump is expected to sign an executive order this week that could fundamentally change the way Americans save for retirement. The order would open the door for 401(k) plans to include private equity, venture capital and other so-called “private market” assets. These investments have historically been available
Macro Observations
After nearly three years of fits and starts, it looks like China’s economic engine might finally be showing signs of reigniting. It's not a full-fledged recovery nor even an acceleration. It's still just signs that things could finally be improving. That, however, could be
Macro Observations
The United States and Japan struck perhaps the most meaningful trade deal since Liberation Day. The agreement comes across more as a de-escalation of tensions that have built-up over the past year as opposed to a truer effort to break down trade walls and costs. Still, it hints
Macro Observations
While tariffs and global trade have probably the biggest theme of Trump’s second term in the White House, his ongoing personal battle with Fed Chair Jerome Powell may not be far behind. The basis for the conflict is Trump’s belief that the Fed has been too stringent lately
Macro Observations
And just like that, the trade war is back on! Just this week, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. The reasons for the tariffs are quite varied. Copper tariffs are because of national
Macro Observations
The market got two pieces of labor market data this week. First was the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the more popular non-farm payroll report on Friday. The latter obviously gets more attention, but the June numbers were particularly interesting this time around because they potentially presented a
Macro Observations
It’s probably no secret that Donald Trump doesn’t like Jerome Powell. He has railed against him both privately and publicly, calling him “dumb”, “terrible” and “hard-headed”. And that’s just in the past three days. As I alluded to in yesterday’s high yield report, if Trump
Macro Observations
The Preponderance Of Evidence Suggests Rate Hikes Should Be On The Table
Macro Observations
A trade deal between the U.S. and China was supposed to be one of the things that would mark a return to normalcy for the markets and maybe even ignite the next leg of the bull market. Even though we got one this week (who knows what’s actually