Newsletter
Newsletter
Global View
A Perfect Setup for Volatility — and Most Investors Don’t See It Coming
Key Takeaways * A 43-day U.S. government shutdown erased major economic releases, forcing markets to trade without CPI or jobs data.¹ * Fed officials are split on a possible December rate cut, keeping volatility elevated and narrowing market leadership.² * Europe shows rare stability: PMIs remain above 50 and inflation sits
Leaders-Laggards
Retail Rout 2025: Why XRT Keeps Lagging as Investors Abandon Consumer Cyclicals
Retail stocks have spent most of 2025 on their back foot. The equal-weighted SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down for the year, badly trailing the S&P 500’s gain.¹ A rotation away from consumer cyclicals has hardened into a broader risk-off stance, and
Macro Observations
Nvidia May Have Just Killed the Stock Market (Maybe)
AI enthusiasm has pushed Nvidia to heights few would have imagined, humbling anyone who doubted its rise—including me. For nearly two years I argued the stock had outrun reality, yet Nvidia kept proving skeptics wrong. Its latest earnings only intensified the mania, raising an uncomfortable question: is this a
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Weekly Signals
Weekly Signals Update: Utilities Flash Caution Amid an Unusual November Market
After the November 17 sell-off, the Weekly Signals framework is sending an early warning that the market’s risk environment may be shifting. The clearest sign comes from the Utilities vs. S&P 500 relative strength ratio. Although still officially in “Risk-On,” utilities’ defensive behavior during the
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Macro Observations
Bitcoin’s Breakaway Moment: Why Its Falling Correlation to Risk Assets Matters More Than Investors Realize
Bitcoin has spent years being dismissed as a volatile proxy for tech stocks, but something quieter and far more consequential has been unfolding beneath the surface: its correlation to traditional risk assets has slipped to multi-year lows¹. The shift went largely unnoticed, even though it may be the clearest