Weekly Signals
A Market Divided
Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.
Weekly Signals
Weekly Signals
Bracing for Impact
Signal Summary Week Ending March 30, 2026 | By Michael A. Gayed, CFA Key Takeaways • The Beta Rotation signal (XLU/SPY 4-week RoC of +3.33%) remains Risk-Off for the fifth consecutive week. XLU at $45.59 rebounded modestly from last week’s $44.65 level, while SPY at
Weekly Signals
Below the Line
Three of four signals favor safety as the S&P 500 breaks further below its 200-day moving average. Gold's crash drives the lone Risk-On reading.
Weekly Signals
Defensive Tide Rising
Three of four signals favor safety. The S&P 500 has broken its 200-day moving average — and the lone Risk-On reading is gold's crash, not improving fundamentals.
Weekly Signals
The Signals Saw It Coming
Three of four risk-off signals front-ran the geopolitical shock. The US-Iran conflict and resulting oil spike were the event risk that Utilities, Treasuries, and Gold had been pricing in for weeks.
Weekly Signals
When the AI Boom Becomes a Credit Event
Why Duration Could Win the Next Cycle
Weekly Signals
Risk-Off Isn’t Dead: The Resurgence of Classic Defensive Asset Correlations
How Utilities and Long-Duration Treasuries Are Quietly Signaling That Growth Fears—Not Inflation—Are Back in Control
Weekly Signals
Will the Gold and Silver Crash Bring Back Treasuries as the Risk-Off Trade of Choice?
Key Highlights * Gold and silver suffered historic single-day collapses after an extended speculative surge. * The crash followed a sharp reversal in U.S. dollar strength and interest-rate expectations. * Policy credibility and shifting Federal Reserve leadership played a central role in the reversal. * Precious metals revealed vulnerabilities when positioned
Weekly Signals
Defensive Positioning Preceded the News
Is This Really About Greenland?
Weekly Signals
Risk-On Without Tech: What a Small-Cap Led Market Means for Sector Rotation
As 2026 begins, equity market leadership looks notably different from what investors have grown accustomed to over the past several years. Instead of mega-cap technology stocks dictating the market’s direction, small-cap equities have emerged as the primary drivers of performance. For investors conditioned to measure risk appetite
Weekly Signals
A Risk-Off Signal in a Market That Feels Too Certain
Key Highlights * The JOJO.INDEX has shifted into “junk-off,” signaling increased probability of near-term volatility. * Utility stock leadership triggered the rotation, a historically reliable early warning signal. * Credit spreads remain near historic lows, leaving little margin for error. * Investor sentiment shows extreme optimism despite signs of economic cooling.
Weekly Signals
Value vs. Growth: Signs of a Long-Awaited Turn
Key Highlights * Large-cap value appears to have bottomed against large-cap growth, ending a multi-year stretch of relative underperformance and signaling a potential shift in market leadership. * Valuation extremes favor value stocks, with discounts versus growth near historically rare levels, increasing the odds of sustained mean reversion if