Weekly Signals
Every December, the same question resurfaces on Wall Street: will the market end the year with a seasonal gift, or deliver a lump of coal? The so-called “Santa Claus rally” has become one of the most enduring patterns in market history. Far from a holiday cliché, it reflects a
Weekly Signals
Bitcoin’s sharp decline in November 2025 revived a familiar debate: whether crypto weakness is an early warning for equities. Bitcoin had climbed above $125,000 in early October before losing roughly one-fifth of its value during November, its largest monthly drawdown since the 2021 crash.¹ Other tokens followed.
Weekly Signals
The market has spent most of 2025 celebrating its loudest winners — Big Tech, high-beta favorites, and the speculative trades that dominated the narrative. Yet beneath that noise, a quieter story is unfolding. Low-volatility stocks, ignored for much of the year, have begun to outperform. The shift is subtle,
Weekly Signals
After the November 17 sell-off, the Weekly Signals framework is sending an early warning that the market’s risk environment may be shifting. The clearest sign comes from the Utilities vs. S&P 500 relative strength ratio. Although still officially in “Risk-On,” utilities’ defensive behavior during the
Weekly Signals
Seasonality often gets dismissed as folklore. Yet history keeps proving that the final stretch of the year—November and December—has been a sweet spot for equity investors. Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has rallied in November roughly 73 percent of the time, averaging gains
Weekly Signals
Why the Index Can Be Above the 50-Day MA and Still Fragile
Weekly Signals
Investors are entering the final stretch of the year wondering if equities have one more rally left in them. After months of turbulence, talk of an “end-of-year melt-up” is growing louder. Seasonality favors a rally, and one curious tell—the severe weakness in utility stocks—has caught
Weekly Signals
Lumber’s price swings have long served as an early read on the economy’s health. Because it’s central to homebuilding, lumber demand often rises and falls before broader economic shifts appear in GDP or employment data. As economist Edward Leamer once wrote, housing is “the most important sector
Weekly Signals
My 2014 study showed that utilities do better than other stocks in the weeks leading up to vol spikes, providing an early warning smart money is getting ready for a move to defense.[1] Friday’s sell-off (Oct. 10, 2025) confirmed in dramatic fashion. The chart above — a plot
Weekly Signals
Gold has long been seen as the ultimate risk-off asset — it climbs when markets tumble. But for the past two years, it has not acted that way. Gold has risen along with equities or lagged while under stress. Its recent rush toward $4,000 an ounce smacks of speculative
Weekly Signals
My award-winning research from 2014 showed that utility stocks typically outperform the broader stock market in advance of market volatility. Utilities are the perfect example of a low-beta, interest-rate-sensitive, non-cyclical sector. During times of risk-off, investors are drawn to them because their dividends and
Weekly Signals
How To Interpret the Signals: Within each strategy, there is a risk-on and risk-off investment recommendation, with the risk-off option being the more conservative of the two. When a particular signal indicates that investors should be risk-off, for example, subscribers should consider investing in the risk-